Prediction markets vs sportsbooks for Cowboys games: where the price comes from

Two very different kinds of venue put a price on every Cowboys game. They reach that price from opposite directions, and the difference shows up in what a winning position pays. For a fan in Texas the comparison is not academic: the state licenses no sportsbook, so only one of the two is open to you at home.

The sportsbook model

A sportsbook is the counterparty. It writes the line, takes the other side of every ticket and protects itself by shading both prices. A game it rates as a true coin flip does not go up at +100 each way; it goes up at -110 each way. Turn those two prices into probabilities and they add to about 104.8%. The excess is the book's margin, usually called the vig or the hold, and it is set before kickoff.

You never see it as a charge. It sits inside the odds. DraftKings had the Cowboys at -230 and the Colts at +190 for Sunday's game in Indianapolis, as ESPN listed it at about 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Friday. As probabilities, those two prices add up to 104.2%: a hold of about 4.2% before anyone takes a side.

The prediction-market model

A prediction market is not a counterparty. It is a matching engine. A trader who thinks Dallas wins is paired with one who thinks it loses, and the price is wherever their orders meet, quoted in cents as a probability. A Cowboys contract at 70 cents pays $1 if Dallas wins. With no house position to protect, nobody has a reason to shade the line, and the two sides of a busy market tend to add up to within a cent or two of $1.

The venues earn their money differently:

• Novig charges no fee on pre-game straight trades placed on its app or website. Live (in-game) trades that take a resting order pay a taker fee that scales with price, 0.06 × price × (1 − price) per contract in every league, and traders whose resting orders are filled pay nothing, per Novig's fee schedule as of November 2026.
• Kalshi charges a taker fee scaled by price, built on a 7% rate. It is largest on a coin flip and shrinks as one side becomes a heavy favorite.
• Polymarket US sets its own fees by market; check its schedule before trading.

The same game, four returns

Suppose the Cowboys trade at 70 cents on an exchange, close to the 69.7% that DraftKings' -230 implies.

Here the sportsbook's -230 pays slightly more than a 70-cent contract, because -230 is a shade under 70% to begin with; the comparison turns on the exact prices, which is why the board runs it on live numbers instead of assuming. What the table does show is the cost of a fee: at the same 70-cent price, a 7% rate takes $2.94 off a winning $100, and Novig's live taker fee takes $1.28. A no-fee trade pays the full value of the probability on the screen. The 70-cent exchange price here is an illustration, not a quote. How to read the Cowboys board walks through the formula.

Why this matters in Texas

Texas has no legal sportsbook, online or retail. Betting on a game is a misdemeanor under the state's penal code, and changing that takes a constitutional amendment that the Legislature has not sent to voters; its next regular session opens in January 2027. So the DraftKings, FanDuel and other sportsbook rows on the board are there for comparison and for readers in states that license them. A fan in Arlington cannot open them.

Prediction markets sit outside that state system. They are overseen federally by the CFTC rather than licensed state by state, and Novig, Kalshi and Polymarket US all operate in Texas today. That does not mean the state has made its peace with them: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick told a Senate committee in March to study what he called the "sudden inundation" of prediction markets, and lawmakers are expected to take the subject up in 2027. Texas has not sued or ordered out any exchange. Texas sports betting in 2026 has the full picture, and the Texas page prices this week's game only at the venues a fan in the state can open.

Novig is available in 47 states; it is not offered in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada. What new traders receive on sign-up is set out on the Novig offer page.

What "no fee" does not promise

No fee is not a promise of a better price. On a prediction market the price comes from other traders and moves with them, and a thinly traded market can leave a wider gap between the best buy and the best sell than a sportsbook's built-in margin. When that happens it shows on the board, because the hold column measures every venue's two sides the same way. An NFL game draws more volume than almost anything else on an exchange, so the gap is usually small, but the board does not take that on faith; it measures it on every refresh.

This site is for readers 21 and older. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.